Analisis Pengaruh Aspek Demografi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the influence of demographic factors on economic growth in North Sumatra Province during the 2010–2025 period. It examines the impact of population growth rates, dependency ratios, and labor force participation rates on the province's economic growth, while also protecting the demographic bonus phenomenon up to the year 2030. The study utilizes secondary time-series data from 2010 to 2025, obtained from official records of Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Analysis was conducted using the multiple linear regression method with EViews 9 software, alongside the Least Squares Trend method for projections. The results indicate that Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is significantly positively influenced by the population growth rate and significantly negatively influenced by the dependency ratio, whereas the labor force participation rate shows a positive but non-significant effect. Collectively, these three factors exert a significant influence on GRDP, with an Adjusted R-Squared value of 77.70%. Projections for 2030 indicate a population growth rate of 1.47%, a dependency ratio of 48.56%, a labor force participation rate of 75.53%, and a GRDP at current prices of IDR 789,098.01 billion. These findings suggest that North Sumatra Province has the potential to leverage the demographic bonus to accelerate economic growth through the enhancement of human resource capabilities and job creation.
Keywords
Dependency Ratio, Demographic Dividend, GRDP, Labor Force Participation Rate, Population Growth Rate
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Copyright (c) 2026 Cristin Elfrida Manurung, Nurlina Nurlina, Iskandar Iskandar
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